It’s in the interests of all rational people that Labour limps on to 2029, given the alternative is Reform UK plunging us into a trade war with the EU and their racist deportation/ILR policy, pulling out of the ECHR etc.
People voting for Reform UK at the General Election would create a trade standoff with the EU, a potential no deal Brexit threat all over again. In the same vein of the threat that it was in 2020.
Reform UK’s opening moves would surely cause some sort of trade penalty from the EU if they discriminate against EU citizens and pull out of the the ECHR completely. Given the nature of the current UK-EU TCA.
The EU might make an example of Farage as a way of sending a message to the rest of the European far right parties, part of me wouldn’t blame them if we strip rights from Europeans living in the UK, you can expect the same to happen to British people in the EU potentially.
A key thing would be the make up of the European parliament and how much PM Farage pisses of the EU Commission with his supposed negotiations with them, on a take it or leave it basis.
With any luck Shabana Mahmood somehow manages to pull off ECHR reform of some sort to hold onto the common ground centre of opinion, who knows, she might even be leader one day, secondly Starmer needs to drop Reeves given how much unemployment has increased thanks to her policies. Ideally Starmer would carry the can for appointing her..
Though as this is Starmer we’re talking about, he will likely doggedly carry on, this would be admirable if was a good prime minister and a good enough communicator and with the charisma to maintain enough support. But he isn’t and doesn’t.
The Reformist 