The impending threat of a no deal scenario playing out may have focused the minds of EU figures and officials in recent days. With the evidence for this being the EU stepping up plans for future trade talks taking place at an early stage if there is progress with the divorce settlement. The EU 27 are pressuring Donald Tusk the President of the European council to get the process moving and to make sure that the momentum from the PM’s Florence speech is carried through to concrete steps that could lead to significant progress being made.
The EU heavy weights Germany and France are holding up the process to some degree due to their own domestic priorities, with President Macron the issues surrounding his Labour Reforms. Chancellor Merkel is putting together a coalition government that is absorbing much of Merkel’s policy attention rather than the Brexit process. These domestic policy Distractions are holding back the progress that could be made and furthermore these two EU leaders are also wary of a no deal Brexit so much so that their co-operation to form an agreement between themselves and the wider group of member states is so crucial.
It’s possible that the change in stance shown by the policy leak of the EU that showed that they were prepared to speed up the talks to that of trade was due to the UK giving loud hints that it was preparing for a no deal scenario and drafting preparations for a situation where a transitional Brexit has not been agreed prior to the UK’s exit from the European Union. The Chancellor Philip Hammond needs to emphasize this to provide us with a coherent Negotiating insurance position. This means we prepare funds to ensure that the UK is ready if necessary for a WTO scenario if talks breakdown completely.
It won’t be the desired option for many but not planning for the eventuality would be the same folly that the former Prime Minister David Cameron made about a lack of planning if the UK voted to leave the EU. The same error would be made again if there were no effective contingencies for customs and trade mechanisms if the no deal scenario was close to becoming an economic reality. It could have two positive enabling effects for the UK. It could turn up the heat making the EU member states to think about their economic best interests and as a no deal scenario could cause a knock on effect in Northern European Countries such as Belgium and the Netherlands, through the significant increase of Tariffs and the heightened cost of exports. The EU’s cautious willingness to move on to trade talks shows that the threat of a no deal scenario is staring to focus the minds of the leaders of the EU member states who want a pragmatism to be shown with regards to EU-UK trade as well as preventing economic harm to themselves.
The Reformist 