The triumph of Merkel in the German federal election seems a forgone conclusion. The great hope for Britain is that she will act as a moderating force on the EU position with regards to their negotiating stance. That she will tame the forces in Brussels seeking to make an example of the UK by figures such as Juncker and Guy Verhofstadt who advocate a federalist philosophy.
Perhaps German business interests will overcome the politics and pragmatism will triumph over Merkel’s demands on the German business community to toe the EU line of further integration at the cost of damaging business link with the UK which is illogical as we are highly interlinked dynamic economies. It might not be a forlorn hope that the EU will see pragmatic solution as German exports are very much linked with the UK market. There is then the inevitable split between the member states such as Poland and Hungary whose outlook is more concerned with preserving their socially conservative national identities and very much at odds with the Centralising nature of what the EU has become who were the UK’s allies in the EU parliament, when it came to votes on EU legislation that is implemented in member states. The divisions between the countries of Eastern Europe such as these and the founding Franco-German EU partnership will clash. This could fragment the unity of approach that the EU tries to present.
The key point of this is that power bases between Commission, Council and Member states are constantly in a power struggle. Nevertheless the relationship between the UK and Merkel is paramount as after all the German economy is powering ahead with growth of 0.6% this quarter and yearly GDP growth of 2.1 %. If Germany faces up to the reality of the amount of manufacturing jobs that could be lost should the EU remain as intransigent and inflexible in there negotiating, unless Merkel influences this negotiation which have taken a turn for the worse. It is in Germany’s economic interest that there is an orderly British exit or its export manufacturing will be significantly weakened and will have to change its model to one that can cope with the level of tariffs under a WTO model of Brexit which would result in an economic cost to Germany.
German Manufacturing jobs would be lost in significant numbers if Merkel submits to the EU’s objective of maintaining discipline for the European project on further Eurozone integration and political union with consequence of damaging trade links with the UK which is a significant export market for its cars in Europe. Would Merkel be willing to suffer the economic cost for the preservation of the EU’s phalanx of sectional interests ?. Time will tell but Economic interests will intervene at some point to clear the air at some point in these most difficult of negotiations that require strategic patience and dogged persistence.
The Reformist 